“Don’t freak out about the immediate risks of a nuclear war. They’re very low.” — That’s roughly the key message of a recent nuclear warcasting summary by Scott Alexander, quoting a prediction by a team of the world’s best superforecasters.
If you have never heard of Scott Alexander before, consider subscribing to his Substack newsletter/blog Astral Codex Ten. He’s arguably one the most influential intellectuals in America, and smart as hell. Forecasting is one of his favorite topics, and his writing will always lead you to be less wrong — no matter what your freelance expertise is.
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